Covid-19: Early Cases and Disease Spread

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Abstract

The emergence and global spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is critical to understanding how to prevent or control a future viral pandemic. We review the tools used for this retrospective search, their limits, and results obtained from China, France, Italy and the USA. We examine possible scenarios for the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in the human population. We consider the Chinese city of Wuhan where the first cases of atypical pneumonia were attributed to SARS-CoV-2 and from where the disease spread worldwide. Possible superspreading events include the Wuhan-based 7 ^th Military World Games on October 18–27, 2019 and the Chinese New Year holidays from January 25 to February 2, 2020. Several clues point to an early regional circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in northern Italy (Lombardi) as soon as September/October 2019 and in France in November/December 2019, if not before. With the goal of preventing future pandemics, we call for additional retrospective studies designed to trace the origin of SARS-CoV-2.

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Most cited references 93

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Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia

Qun Li, Xuhua Guan, Peng Wu … (2020)

Abstract Background The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of NCIP. Methods We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by January 22, 2020. We described characteristics of the cases and estimated the key epidemiologic time-delay distributions. In the early period of exponential growth, we estimated the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number. Results Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9). Conclusions On the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and others.)

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First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States

Michelle Holshue, Chas DeBolt, Scott Lindquist … (2020)

Summary An outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) that began in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly, with cases now confirmed in multiple countries. We report the first case of 2019-nCoV infection confirmed in the United States and describe the identification, diagnosis, clinical course, and management of the case, including the patient’s initial mild symptoms at presentation with progression to pneumonia on day 9 of illness. This case highlights the importance of close coordination between clinicians and public health authorities at the local, state, and federal levels, as well as the need for rapid dissemination of clinical information related to the care of patients with this emerging infection.

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Correlation of Chest CT and RT-PCR Testing in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China: A Report of 1014 Cases

Tao Ai, Zhenlu Yang, Hongyan Hou … (2020)

Background Chest CT is used for diagnosis of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), as an important complement to the reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests. Purpose To investigate the diagnostic value and consistency of chest CT as compared with comparison to RT-PCR assay in COVID-19. Methods From January 6 to February 6, 2020, 1014 patients in Wuhan, China who underwent both chest CT and RT-PCR tests were included. With RT-PCR as reference standard, the performance of chest CT in diagnosing COVID-19 was assessed. Besides, for patients with multiple RT-PCR assays, the dynamic conversion of RT-PCR results (negative to positive, positive to negative, respectively) was analyzed as compared with serial chest CT scans for those with time-interval of 4 days or more. Results Of 1014 patients, 59% (601/1014) had positive RT-PCR results, and 88% (888/1014) had positive chest CT scans. The sensitivity of chest CT in suggesting COVID-19 was 97% (95%CI, 95-98%, 580/601 patients) based on positive RT-PCR results. In patients with negative RT-PCR results, 75% (308/413) had positive chest CT findings; of 308, 48% were considered as highly likely cases, with 33% as probable cases. By analysis of serial RT-PCR assays and CT scans, the mean interval time between the initial negative to positive RT-PCR results was 5.1 ± 1.5 days; the initial positive to subsequent negative RT-PCR result was 6.9 ± 2.3 days). 60% to 93% of cases had initial positive CT consistent with COVID-19 prior (or parallel) to the initial positive RT-PCR results. 42% (24/57) cases showed improvement in follow-up chest CT scans before the RT-PCR results turning negative. Conclusion Chest CT has a high sensitivity for diagnosis of COVID-19. Chest CT may be considered as a primary tool for the current COVID-19 detection in epidemic areas. A translation of this abstract in Farsi is available in the supplement. - ترجمه چکیده این مقاله به فارسی، در ضمیمه موجود است.

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Author and article information

Contributors

Jacques Reis:

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1216-4662

Alain Le Faou:

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3243-7330

Role: Prof.

Alain Buguet:

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8346-828X

Role: Prof.

Guy Sandner:

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5090-8875

Role: Prof.

Peter Spencer:

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3994-2639

Role: Prof.

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Ann Glob Health

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Ann Glob Health

Journal ID (issn): 2214-9996

Title: Annals of Global Health

Publisher: Ubiquity Press

ISSN (Electronic): 2214-9996

Publication date (Electronic, pub): 29 September 2022

Publication date Collection: 2022

Volume: 88

Issue: 1

Electronic Location Identifier: 83

Affiliations

[1 ]UDS University of Strasbourg, 67000 Strasbourg, France

[2 ]Association RISE, 67205 Oberhausbergen, France

[3 ]EA 3452 CITHEFOR and Faculté de Médecine Maïeutique et Métiers de la Santé. Université de Lorraine 54500 Vandoeuvre-lès-Nancy, France

[4 ]Malaria Research Unit, UMR 5246 CNRS, Claude-Bernard Lyon-1 University, 69622 Villeurbanne, France

[5 ]Faculty of medicine, University of Strasbourg. 6 rue de Neufeld, 67100 Strasbourg, France

[6 ]Department of Neurology, School of Medicine, and Oregon Institute of Occupational Health Sciences, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR 97239, USA

Author notes

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Jacques Reis, MD, AEA UDS University of Strasbourg, 67000 Strasbourg, France; Association RISE, 67205 Oberhausbergen, France jacques.reis@ 123456wanadoo.fr

Author information

Jacques Reis https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1216-4662

Alain Le Faou https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3243-7330

Alain Buguet https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8346-828X

Guy Sandner https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5090-8875

Peter Spencer https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3994-2639

Article

DOI: 10.5334/aogh.3776

PMC ID: 9524236

PubMed ID: 36247198

SO-VID: 1eff3527-abd6-4ced-991c-ea8e7f5200c3

License:

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC-BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. See http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

Covid-19: Early Cases and Disease Spread

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Novel Coronavirus Disease COVID-19

Most cited references 93

Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia

First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States

Correlation of Chest CT and RT-PCR Testing in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China: A Report of 1014 Cases

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