Defining Seropositivity Thresholds for Use in Trachoma Elimination Studies

Abstract

Background

Efforts are underway to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem by 2020. Programmatic guidelines are based on clinical signs that correlate poorly with Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) infection in post-treatment and low-endemicity settings. Age-specific seroprevalence of anti Ct Pgp3 antibodies has been proposed as an alternative indicator of the need for intervention. To standardise the use of these tools, it is necessary to develop an analytical approach that performs reproducibly both within and between studies.

Methodology

Dried blood spots were collected in 2014 from children aged 1–9 years in Laos (n = 952) and Uganda (n = 2700) and from people aged 1–90 years in The Gambia (n = 1868). Anti-Pgp3 antibodies were detected by ELISA. A number of visual and statistical analytical approaches for defining serological status were compared.

Principal Findings

Seroprevalence was estimated at 11.3% (Laos), 13.4% (Uganda) and 29.3% (The Gambia) by visual inspection of the inflection point. The expectation-maximisation algorithm estimated seroprevalence at 10.4% (Laos), 24.3% (Uganda) and 29.3% (The Gambia). Finite mixture model estimates were 15.6% (Laos), 17.1% (Uganda) and 26.2% (The Gambia). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis using a threshold calibrated against external reference specimens estimated the seroprevalence at 6.7% (Laos), 6.8% (Uganda) and 20.9% (The Gambia) when the threshold was set to optimise Youden’s J index. The ROC curve analysis was found to estimate seroprevalence at lower levels than estimates based on thresholds established using internal reference data. Thresholds defined using internal reference threshold methods did not vary substantially between population samples.

Conclusions

Internally calibrated approaches to threshold specification are reproducible and consistent and thus have advantages over methods that require external calibrators. We propose that future serological analyses in trachoma use a finite mixture model or expectation-maximisation algorithm as a means of setting the threshold for ELISA data. This will facilitate standardisation and harmonisation between studies and eliminate the need to establish and maintain a global calibration standard.

Author Summary

Trachoma is caused by the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct). Individuals who have previously been infected with Ct carry specific antibodies in their blood. Recent studies have suggested that these antibodies may be a good way to estimate the intensity of transmission of this bacterium in a population. Among people who do have antibodies (seropositives) there is variation in the amount that is detectable in their blood. Some people have such low levels that differentiating them from those who don’t have antibodies (seronegatives) is challenging. We used a new test for Ct antibodies on blood specimens from three countries. Our test worked extremely well, giving reproducible results when we tested the same samples multiple times. We compared four different methods for setting the position of the threshold line between seronegatives and seropositives. The estimated transmission intensity in each country varied depending on the threshold method used, but two methods that used statistical modelling algorithms to define the two groups performed consistently across all three countries’ samples. We recommend that future studies should consider adopting the statistical modelling approaches, as they are objective tests that require no reference material and allow for standardisation between studies.