Optimal levels of vaccination to reduce COVID-19 infected individuals and deaths: A global analysis

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a pandemic threat that is generating a constant state of alert in manifold countries. One of the strategies of defense against infectious diseases is the vaccinations that decrease the numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths. In this context, the optimal level of vaccination is a basic point to control pandemic crisis. The study here,−using global data of doses of vaccines administered per 100 inhabitants, confirmed cases and case fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries from March to May 2021,− clarifies the optimal levels of vaccination for reducing the number of infected individuals and, consequently, numbers of deaths. Findings reveal that the average level of administering about 80 doses of vaccines per 100 inhabitants between countries can sustain a reduction of confirmed cases and numbers of deaths. In addition, results suggest that an intensive vaccination campaign in the initial phase of pandemic wave leads to a lower optimal level of doses administered per 100 inhabitants (roughly 47 doses of vaccines) for reducing infected individuals; however, the growth of pandemic wave moves up the optimal level of vaccines to about 90 doses for reducing the numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals. All these results here could aid policymakers to prepare optimal strategies directed to a rapid COVID-19 vaccination rollout, before the takeoff of pandemic wave, to lessen negative effects of pandemic crisis on environment and socioeconomic systems.