Gun- and Non-Gun–Related Violence Exposure and Risk for Subsequent Gun Carrying Among Male Juvenile Offenders

Abstract

<div class="section"> <a class="named-anchor" id="S1"> <!-- named anchor --> </a> <h5 class="section-title" id="d5131516e151">Objective</h5> <p id="P2">Although studies have found that youth exposed to violence are more likely to carry guns than non-exposed youth, this association could be due to common causal factors or other pre-existing differences between individuals. In this study, within-individual change models were used to determine whether juvenile offenders exhibit an increased propensity to carry a firearm after being exposed to gun violence and/or non-gun violence. The advantage of this approach is all time-invariant factors are eliminated as potential confounders. </p> </div><div class="section"> <a class="named-anchor" id="S2"> <!-- named anchor --> </a> <h5 class="section-title" id="d5131516e156">Method</h5> <p id="P3">1170 racially/ethnically diverse male juvenile offenders were recruited in Arizona and Pennsylvania (ages 14–19 at recruitment). Participants were interviewed every six months for three years followed by four annual assessments. The outcome was gun carrying and the primary predictors were exposure to gun violence and non-gun violence. Time-varying covariates included exposure to peers who carried guns, exposure to peers who engaged in other (non-gun) criminal acts, developmental changes in gun carrying, and changes in gun carrying due to incarceration/institutionalization. </p> </div><div class="section"> <a class="named-anchor" id="S3"> <!-- named anchor --> </a> <h5 class="section-title" id="d5131516e161">Results</h5> <p id="P4">Adolescent offenders were significantly more likely to carry a gun in recall periods following exposure to gun violence, but not after exposure to non-gun violence. Effect of gun violence on carrying was significant throughout adolescence and young adulthood, and could not be accounted for by time-varying and time-invariant confounders. </p> </div><div class="section"> <a class="named-anchor" id="S4"> <!-- named anchor --> </a> <h5 class="section-title" id="d5131516e166">Conclusions</h5> <p id="P5">Interventions to reduce illegal gun carrying should target young men in medical and mental health settings who experience or witness gun violence, as well as those living in communities with high rates of gun violence. </p> </div>