Review of research on tourism-related diseases

Since the emergence of the first cases in Wuhan, China, the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection has been quickly spreading out to other provinces and neighboring countries. Estimation of the basic reproduction number by means of mathematical modeling can be helpful for determining the potential and severity of an outbreak and providing critical information for identifying the type of disease interventions and intensity. A deterministic compartmental model was devised based on the clinical progression of the disease, epidemiological status of the individuals, and intervention measures. The estimations based on likelihood and model analysis show that the control reproduction number may be as high as 6.47 (95% CI 5.71–7.23). Sensitivity analyses show that interventions, such as intensive contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation, can effectively reduce the control reproduction number and transmission risk, with the effect of travel restriction adopted by Wuhan on 2019-nCoV infection in Beijing being almost equivalent to increasing quarantine by a 100 thousand baseline value. It is essential to assess how the expensive, resource-intensive measures implemented by the Chinese authorities can contribute to the prevention and control of the 2019-nCoV infection, and how long they should be maintained. Under the most restrictive measures, the outbreak is expected to peak within two weeks (since 23 January 2020) with a significant low peak value. With travel restriction (no imported exposed individuals to Beijing), the number of infected individuals in seven days will decrease by 91.14% in Beijing, compared with the scenario of no travel restriction.

Commercial hunting and habitat loss are major drivers of the rapid decline of great apes [1]. Ecotourism and research have been widely promoted as a means of providing alternative value for apes and their habitats [2]. However, close contact between humans and habituated apes during ape tourism and research has raised concerns that disease transmission risks might outweigh benefits [3-7]. To date only bacterial and parasitic infections of typically low virulence have been shown to move from humans to wild apes [8, 9]. Here, we present the first direct evidence of virus transmission from humans to wild apes. Tissue samples from habituated chimpanzees that died during three respiratory-disease outbreaks at our research site, Côte d'Ivoire, contained two common human paramyxoviruses. Viral strains sampled from chimpanzees were closely related to strains circulating in contemporaneous, worldwide human epidemics. Twenty-four years of mortality data from observed chimpanzees reveal that such respiratory outbreaks could have a long history. In contrast, survey data show that research presence has had a strong positive effect in suppressing poaching around the research site. These observations illustrate the challenge of maximizing the benefit of research and tourism to great apes while minimizing the negative side effects.