Fault-Event Trees Based Probabilistic Safety Analysis of a Boiling Water Nuclear Reactor’s Core Meltdown and Minor Damage Frequencies

Abstract

A systematic probabilistic safety assessment for a boiling water nuclear reactor core is performed using fault trees and event trees analysis models. Based on a survey of the BWR’s safety systems against potential hazards, eight independent failure modes (initiating events) triggered scenarios are modelled and evaluated in the assembled fault-event trees, obtaining the two key outcome probabilities of interest, i.e., complete core meltdown (CCMD) frequency and minor core damage (MCD) frequency. The analysis results indicate that the complete loss of heat sink accounts for the initiating accident most vulnerable to CCMD (with a frequency of 1.8 × 10 − 5 per year), while the large break in the reactor pressure vessel is the least susceptible one (with a frequency of 2.9 × 10 − 12 per year). The quantitative risk assessment and independent review conducted in this case study contributed a reference reliability model for defense-in-depth core optimizations with reduced costs, informing risk-based policy decision making, licensing, and public understanding in nuclear safety systems.