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      The New Politics of Numbers : Utopia, Evidence and Democracy 

      Afterword: Quantifying, Mediating and Intervening: The R Number and the Politics of Health in the Twenty-First Century

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      Springer International Publishing

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          Abstract

          This essay discusses the unassailable power and popularity that numbers have come to assume during the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemiological statistics have come to play a remarkable and public role, regulating our lives, while shaping and justifying political decisions. This essay traces the emergence of one particular number, the “R” number or reproduction number in multiple and dispersed sites, drawing attention to the bifurcation of demography and epidemiology in its emergence. It examines how and why the R number came to act as a crucial mediating instrument during the pandemic, linking the health and well-being of the population with the health of the economy and supporting arguments both in favour of and against restrictions of various kinds.

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          Trust in Numbers

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            Governing by numbers: Figuring out democracy

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              Directly transmitted infections diseases: control by vaccination.

              Mathematical models for the dynamics of directly transmitted viral and bacterial infections are guides to the understanding of observed patterns in the age specific incidence of some common childhood diseases of humans, before and after the advent of vaccination programs. For those infections that show recurrent epidemic behavior, the interepidemic period can be related to parameters characterizing the infection (such as latent and infectious periods and the average age of first infection); this relation agrees with the data of a variety of childhood diseases. Criteria for the eradication of a disease are given, in terms of the proportion of the population to be vaccinated and the age-specific vaccination schedule. These criteria are compared with a detailed analysis of the vaccination programs against measles and whooping cough in Britain, and estimates are made of the levels of protection that would be needed to eradicate these diseases.
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                Book Chapter
                2022
                October 12 2021
                : 465-476
                10.1007/978-3-030-78201-6_14
                8ec0ec78-70d5-42fd-b7b0-35ed6c7347e0
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