Scenario-Based Foresight in the Age of Digital Technologies and AI

Abstract

Scenario-based foresight is used less and less in the corporate world despite continued high satisfaction with the obtained results. In the age of digitalization, many companies feel increasingly forced to short-termism instead of strategic planning. However, emerging digital technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), represent a promising approach to cope with the traditional challenges of scenario-based foresight as well as new challenges added by digitalization. Therefore, this work-in-progress paper identifies and analyzes use cases for scenario-based foresight with digital technologies employing a systematic analysis of the relevant literature.

In the paper at hand, we show that the use of digital technologies for improving the performance of scenario-based foresight is an emerging field. We identify 14 so-called use cases, i.e., unique goal-oriented applications of digital technologies for scenario-based foresight. In general, the use cases show that currently digital technologies can enhance, not substitute the capabilities of scenario-based foresight practitioners. Digital technologies primarily support the analysis of large amounts of data, e.g., for collecting futuristic data and identifying key influence factors. However, activities that require implicit knowledge and creativity, like the interpretation of scenarios, are currently still left to humans.