A natural, if idealised, picture of the role of risk assessments in planning sees decision-makers drawing on the risk projections provided by natural and social scientific models and fashioning policies or plans that maximise expected benefit relative to this information. In this paper we draw on our study of the use tsunami science in development planning in Western India to identify ways in which this idealised picture fails to reflect important difficulties encountered by both the science and policy domains, including the representation and communication of scientific uncertainty and the management of this uncertainty within the planning system. We highlight aspects of the management of these uncertainties pose pressing problems and make some suggestions as to how they might be resolved.
Author and article information
UCL Open: Environment Preprint
] Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method, The London School of Economics
and Political Science.
] Department of Statistical Science, University College London
] Indian Institute for Human Settlements
] The Bartlett Development Planning Unit, University College London
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
Attribution License (CC BY) 4.0
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided
the original author and source are credited.