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      Impact of natural disasters on consumer behavior: Case of the 2017 El Niño phenomenon in Peru

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          Abstract

          El Niño is an extreme weather event featuring unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon is characterized by heavy rains and floods that negatively affect the economic activities of the impacted areas. Understanding how this phenomenon influences consumption behavior at different granularity levels is essential for recommending strategies to normalize the situation. With this aim, we performed a multi-scale analysis of data associated with bank transactions involving credit and debit cards. Our findings can be summarized into two main results: Coarse-grained analysis reveals the presence of the El Niño phenomenon and the recovery time in a given territory, while fine-grained analysis demonstrates a change in individuals’ purchasing patterns and in merchant relevance as a consequence of the climatic event. The results also indicate that society successfully withstood the natural disaster owing to the economic structure built over time. In this study, we present a new method that may be useful for better characterizing future extreme events.

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          Most cited references31

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          Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models

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            Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters.

            Social and ecological vulnerability to disasters and outcomes of any particular extreme event are influenced by buildup or erosion of resilience both before and after disasters occur. Resilient social-ecological systems incorporate diverse mechanisms for living with, and learning from, change and unexpected shocks. Disaster management requires multilevel governance systems that can enhance the capacity to cope with uncertainty and surprise by mobilizing diverse sources of resilience.
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              Social and economic impacts of climate.

              For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions-such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms-influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent "adaptation gaps," current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Data curationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: MethodologyRole: ResourcesRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: MethodologyRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS One
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                2021
                28 January 2021
                : 16
                : 1
                : e0244409
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Universidad del Pacífico, Lima, Peru
                [2 ] Laboratory SAMOVAR, Telecom SudParis, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau, France
                Universidad de Antioquia, COLOMBIA
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5252-4728
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2252-7332
                Article
                PONE-D-20-22088
                10.1371/journal.pone.0244409
                7842981
                33507933
                e57b17a1-b747-4d6e-8a0a-0b37cf556326
                © 2021 Alatrista-Salas et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 31 July 2020
                : 8 December 2020
                Page count
                Figures: 14, Tables: 2, Pages: 23
                Funding
                Funded by: 3rd Programme d’Investissements d’Avenir
                Award ID: ANR-18-EUR-0006
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: STIC AM-SUD - Pedestal Project
                Award ID: 04-2017
                Award Recipient :
                VG, MB: The 3rd Programme d’Investissements d’Avenir ANR-18-EUR-0006, NO, https://anr.fr/ VG, HA, MNP: The STIC AM-SUD program through the 04-2017 PEDESTAL project, NO, http://www.sticmathamsud.org/
                Categories
                Research Article
                Earth sciences
                Atmospheric science
                Climatology
                El Niño-Southern Oscillation
                Earth sciences
                Marine and aquatic sciences
                Oceanography
                El Niño-Southern Oscillation
                Physical Sciences
                Mathematics
                Applied Mathematics
                Algorithms
                Research and Analysis Methods
                Simulation and Modeling
                Algorithms
                People and places
                Geographical locations
                South America
                Peru
                Computer and Information Sciences
                Network Analysis
                Network Resilience
                Earth Sciences
                Geography
                Human Geography
                Urban Geography
                Cities
                Social Sciences
                Human Geography
                Urban Geography
                Cities
                Physical Sciences
                Mathematics
                Probability Theory
                Statistical Distributions
                Earth Sciences
                Hydrology
                Surface Water
                Earth Sciences
                Hydrology
                Flooding
                Custom metadata
                The dataset used was obtained from a Peruvian private financial entity. The dataset was provided to us in the context of a long-standing collaboration between the Universidad del Pacífico and the financial entity through a specific multidisciplinary research agreement. Sharing the raw version of this dataset can potentially breach the privacy of the bank’s customers. However, the minimal underlying dataset necessary to replicate the study’s findings is publicly available from https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/LYXBGR.

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